• Preface


• Chapter 1 Introduction


• Chapter 2 The Rise of Labor Productivity


• Quarterly Indicators of Aggregate Economic Quantities


• Movements Along an Aggregate Marginal Productivity Schedule


• On Average, Real Wages did not Fall


• Was It Customer Demand? Factor Reduction and Factor Substitution by Industry


• Neither Wealth Effects nor Intertemporal Substitution Effects Explain the "Supply " Shift


• Labor Market Distortions since 2007


• Conclusion: Productivity Patterns Begin to Reveal the Recession's Causes


• Appendix 2.1: Productivity, Labor, and Residuals in Prior Downturns


• Appendix 2.2: Sensitivity Analysis


• Chapter 3 The Expanding Social Safety Net


• A Framework for Quantifying the Generosity of the Safety Net as a Whole


• Legislation Made the Safety Net Available to Millions More


• Legislation Increased the Amount of Benefits Received per Program Participant


• Most of the Increase in Government Safety Net Expenditure is the Direct Result of Program Rule Changes


• Safety Net Rule Changes and Assistance for the Unemployed


• Means-tested Loan Forgiveness


• Conclusion: Replacement Rates for Aggregate Analysis


• Appendix 3.1: Calculation and Aggregation of Statutory Eligibility and Benefit Indices


• Appendix 3.2: Sensitivity Analysis


• Appendix 3.3: The Self-Reliance Rate Outlook


• Appendix 3.4: The Making Work Pay Tax Credit


• Chapter 4 Supply and Demand: Labor Market Consequences of Safety Net Expansions


• The Income-Maximization Fallacy


• Labor and Output Effects of Safety Net Expansions


• Predictions for Consumption and Investment


• Calibrating the Wage Elasticity of Aggregate Labor Supply


• Conclusions and Interpretation


• Appendix 4.1: Comparative Advantage with Heterogeneous Effects of the Safety Net Expansions


• Appendix 4.2: Calibrating the Supply Elasticity from Unemployment Duration Studies


• Appendix 4.3: Safety Net Distortions Measured in Dollars per Year


• Chapter 5 Means-Tested Subsidies and Economic Dynamics since 2007


• The Neoclassical Growth Model with Targeted Means-Tested Subsidies


• Data and Simulation Results


• Effects of the Safety Net Expansion


• Interpreting the Residual Labor Market Distortions


• An Investment Distortion by Itself does not Fit Actual Behavior


• Conclusions


• Appendix 5.1: Calibration, Simulation, and Additional Sensitivity Analysis


• Chapter 6 Cross-Sectional Patterns of Employment and Hours Changes


• Cross-sectional Patterns of Self-Reliance Rate Changes


• Work Hours Changes by Demographic Group and Region


• Program Participation Changes by Demographic Group


• Conclusion: The Cross-Sectional Patterns of Employment and Hours Changes are as Expected from a Large Safety Net Expansion


• Appendix: Summary Statistics and Additional Results


• Chapter 7 Keynesian and Other Models of Safety Net Stimulus


• The Safety Net and Consumer Spending


• Transfers and Government Purchases are not the Same


• Labor Market Slack and the Marginal Effects of Supply


• Sticky Prices, the Wage Elasticity of Labor Demand, and the Zero Lower Bound


• An Econometric Model that Nests My Approach with the Slack Market and Sticky Price Hypotheses


• Conclusion: Whether Labor Supply Matters More, or Less, during a Recession is an Empirical Question


• Appendix: The Safety Net, Sticky Prices, and Monetary Policy


• Chapter 8 Recession-Era Effects of Factor Supply and Demand: Evidence from the Seasonal Cycle, the Construction Market, and Minimum Wage Hikes


• The Christmas and the Academic Seasons as Demand and Supply Shifts


• Christmas Demand in Recessions and Booms


• The Summer Seasonal for Employment and Unemployment


• Housing Investment Crowds Out Non-Residential Construction


• The Employment Effects of Recent Minimum Wage Hikes Were No Less than Before


• The Federal Minimum Wage Hikes Likely Reduced National Employment by Hundreds of Thousands, Especially Among the Young and Unskilled


• Conclusion: Labor Supply Still Matters, About as Much as It Did in the Past


• Chapter 9 Incentives and Compliance under the Federal Mortgage Modification Guidelines


• The Budget Set of a Borrower Facing the FDIC-HAMP Modification Guidelines


• Borrower Reactions under Full Information and Full Compliance: Spend More and Work Less


• Lender Incentives to Expand Modification Capacity


• Conclusions


• Appendix 9.1: Principal Modifications and the Eligible Income Range


• Appendix 9.2: Marginal Tax Rates with Various Horizons and Discount Rates


• Chapter 10 Uncertainty, Redistribution, and the Labor Market


• A Model of the Equity-Efficiency Tradeoff


• Possible Changes in the Equity-Efficiency Tradeoff, and the Optimal Degree of Social Insurance


• The Cost-Benefit Analysis of Safety Net Expansions: Necessary Ingredients


• Conclusions


• Chapter 11 Conclusions


• Incentives Matter


• Was the Financial Collapse a Cause, or Effect?


• Labor Supply and Demand Help Explain an Unhappy Situation


• Bibliography

Professor of Economics, University of Chicago, author of Parental Priorities and Economic Inequality, weekly contributor to Economix blog for the New York Times

The Redistribution Recession is a controversial, clear-cut, and thoroughly researched analysis of the effects of various government policies on the labor market during the recent recession.