This is one of the most interesting contributions to nuclear deterrence theory. It is a fascinating study of how real people--experts and nonexperts--think about nuclear deterrence and arms control. The similarities and differences between expert and nonexpert opinion are very provocative.

1. Introduction; 2. A primer on the Cold War nuclear debate; 3. An introduction to intuitive deterrence theories; 4. Competing hypotheses about nuclear thinking; 5. The novice strategists; 6. The intuitive calculus of nuclear deterrence; 7. Statistical tests of the intuitive nuclear calculus; 8. Expert nuclear reasoning; 9. The factional politics of strategy and the end of the Cold War arms race; 10. Nuclear thinking after the cold war.