Written in an easy-to-read style, this book deals with issues, background, and methods to identify experts, effectively elicit their opinions, and weigh other opinions in order to make practical decisions. It also provides philosophical information on knowledge, ignorance, information, and uncertainty as they relate to various systems. The book contains examples, applications, case studies, and references. It is for anyone who deals with experts or employs expert opinions to solve problems and make decisions. The book emphasizes the applications of the concepts presented.
Knowledge and Ignorance. Information-Based System Definition. Experts, Opinions, and Elicitation Methods. Expressing and Modeling Expert Opinions. Consensus and Aggregating Expert Opinions. Guidance on Expert-Opinion Elicitation. Applications of Expert-Opinion Elicitation.