List of Tables and Illustrations ix
Preface xi
Chapter 1. Introduction: Civil War Termination in Historical
and Theoretical Context 1
Chapter 2. Civil War Termination in Perspective 19
Chapter 3. Securing the Peace: Mutual Benefi t, Mutual Harm 39
Chapter 4. Statistical Analysis of War Recurrence and Longer- Term Outcomes 53
Chapter 5. El Salvador: A Successful Negotiated Settlement 70
Chapter 6. Uganda: Rebel Victory Begets Stability 96
Chapter 7. The Republic of Sudan: A Collapsed Negotiated Settlement 116
Chapter 8. The Republic of Sudan: Prospects for Peace 130
Chapter 9. Conclusion 150
Appendix 163
Notes 175
Bibliography 207
Index 223

Timely and pathbreaking, Securing the Peace is the first book to explore the complete spectrum of civil war terminations, including negotiated settlements, military victories by governments and rebels, and stalemates and ceasefires. Examining the outcomes of all civil war terminations since 1940, Monica Toft develops a general theory of postwar stability, showing how third-party guarantees may not be the best option. She demonstrates that thorough security-sector reform plays a critical role in establishing peace over the long term.
Much of the thinking in this area has centered on third parties presiding over the maintenance of negotiated settlements, but the problem with this focus is that fewer than a quarter of recent civil wars have ended this way. Furthermore, these settlements have been precarious, often resulting in a recurrence of war. Toft finds that military victory, especially victory by rebels, lends itself to a more durable peace. She argues for the importance of the security sector--the police and military--and explains that victories are more stable when governments can maintain order. Toft presents statistical evaluations and in-depth case studies that include El Salvador, Sudan, and Uganda to reveal that where the security sector remains robust, stability and democracy are likely to follow.
An original and thoughtful reassessment of civil war terminations, Securing the Peace will interest all those concerned about resolving our world's most pressing conflicts.

Monica Duffy Toft is associate professor of public policy at the John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University. She is the author of The Geography of Ethnic Violence (Princeton).